Cheltenham
vs
Newport County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newport County
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Cheltenham vs Newport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Newport County
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.1% | 26.8% | 47.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.1% | 26.8% | 47.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Newport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.17.
Cheltenham vs Newport County match preview
Cheltenham faces Newport County in a League Two clash with the home side holding a 26% probability of winning compared to Newport's 47%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-2, with Newport expected to score 1.63 goals and Cheltenham 1.17. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cheltenham recording three losses in their last five matches, while Newport County has managed three draws and two wins.
The model indicates a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score in the match. Historically, Cheltenham has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both, but the current form suggests a competitive match ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cheltenham and Newport County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Cheltenham and Newport County attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Newport County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Newport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 26.1% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Newport County | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Cheltenham vs Newport County stats
Cheltenham and Newport County recent form
| Cheltenham |
LLLWDW |
| Newport County |
DWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Newport County season so far
Cheltenham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newport County record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham vs Newport County head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Cheltenham | Newport County | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Newport County | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.