League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 13
Cheltenham
vs
Newport County
1 – 0 Full time
| 5′ | Charlie McCann | ||
| 30′ | Gerard Garner | ||
| 34′ | M. Dibley-DiasMatthew Smith | ||
| 38′ | Michael Adu-Poku | ||
| 47′ | Jake Evans | ||
| 56′ | K. Otchere | ||
| 57′ | Matthew Smith | ||
| 62′ | Gerard GarnerKion Etete | ||
| 65′ | Charlie McCannRyan Broom | ||
| 68′ | K. OtchereJake Bickerstaff | ||
| 73′ | Jake EvansGeorge Miller | ||
| 81′ | Yahya BambaKieron Thomas Evans | ||
| 81′ | joe thomasThomas Davies |
Cheltenham
36%
Draw
27%
Newport County
37%
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 0 |
| 200 | Accurate passes | 180 |
Cheltenham vs Newport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Newport County
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.9% | 25.0% | 42.1% |
| Market | 37.2% | 28.1% | 34.7% |
| Final | 36.1% | 27.3% | 36.6% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -0.8% | +1.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Cheltenham and Newport County expected goals
Cheltenham
1.53
Newport County
1.74
Total expected goals: 3.27
Cheltenham and Newport County attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.49 +49%
Newport County
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cheltenham vs Newport County: result vs prediction
Cheltenham 1 – 0 Newport County
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Newport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 36.6% | 2.74 | +1.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 36.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Newport County | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% |
| No | 34.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Cheltenham vs Newport County stats
Cheltenham and Newport County recent form
| Cheltenham |
WLLLWD |
| Newport County |
DDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Newport County going into this match
Cheltenham record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newport County record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham vs Newport County head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Cheltenham wins
2Draws
2Newport County wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Cheltenham | Newport County | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Newport County | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-22 | Newport County | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-03 | Newport County | Cheltenham | EFL Trophy | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-10 | Cheltenham | Newport County | League Two | 3-2 |
| 2023-10-10 | Cheltenham | Newport County | EFL Trophy | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-29 | Newport County | Cheltenham | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-01 | Newport County | Cheltenham | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-19 | Cheltenham | Newport County | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2020-09-08 | Newport County | Cheltenham | EFL Trophy | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cheltenham vs Newport County odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 27.9%, away 34.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.34 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.34 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.46 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 2.97 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.52 ▲ +0.24
X
3.34 ▲ +0.02
2
2.70 ▼ -0.20
9 snapshots recorded, from .