Tranmere
vs
Cheltenham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tranmere
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.36.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tranmere vs Cheltenham
| Probability | Tranmere | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 25.8% | 29.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.4% | 25.8% | 29.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tranmere
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.36.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham match preview
Tranmere hosts Cheltenham in a League Two clash with Tranmere holding a 44% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown varying recent form; Tranmere's last six matches include three draws and a win, while Cheltenham has secured three wins in their last six outings.
In terms of expected goals, Tranmere is forecasted to score 1.70, while Cheltenham is expected to net 1.36. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 62% probability that both teams will find the back of the net. The head-to-head record favors Tranmere, who have won both of their last encounters with Cheltenham.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tranmere and Cheltenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Tranmere and Cheltenham attack and defence ratings
Tranmere
Cheltenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tranmere vs Cheltenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 44.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Cheltenham | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Tranmere vs Cheltenham stats
Tranmere and Cheltenham recent form
| Tranmere |
DWLDLD |
| Cheltenham |
WWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tranmere and Cheltenham season so far
Tranmere record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Cheltenham | Tranmere | League Two | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Tranmere | Cheltenham | League Two | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.