Barnet
vs
Tranmere
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barnet vs Tranmere overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Tranmere
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 25.1% | 21.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.8% | 25.1% | 21.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Barnet vs Tranmere match preview
Barnet enters the FA Cup clash against Tranmere with a solid recent form, recording four wins in their last six matches, alongside two draws. Their expected goals stand at 1.82, indicating a strong attacking performance, while their defense appears more vulnerable, with Tranmere's expected goals at 1.08. The model predicts a 2-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a 10% probability.
Tranmere's recent form shows inconsistency, with only one win in their last six games, including three draws. The probabilities suggest Barnet has a 54% chance of winning, while Tranmere's chances sit at 21%. Additionally, both teams scoring is forecasted at 56%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 55%, hinting at a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and Tranmere expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Barnet and Tranmere attack and defence ratings
Barnet
Tranmere
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Barnet vs Tranmere markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 53.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Tranmere | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Barnet vs Tranmere stats
Barnet vs Tranmere head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Tranmere | Barnet | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-27 | Barnet | Tranmere | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Tranmere | Barnet | League Two | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.