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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Barnet vs Tranmere

3 – 0 Full time

36′Jordan Turnbull
39′Oliver Scott
63′Tom ConlonRyan Watson
63′Jordan TurnbullB. Faulkner
64′Joe IronsideJoel Senior
68′Romoney Crichlow-NobleKane Smith
70′J MaskellDamola Ajayi
70′Jake ReevesTom Knowles
76′Charlie Jay Whitaker
79′Oliver ScottJacob Slater
80′Kane Smith
83′Charlie LakinNnamdi Ofoborh
85′Nathan SmithDavid Kamara
88′Darrell James Clarke
90′Nnamdi Ofoborh
90′Adam SeniorAaron Liwala-Lukizalamu
90′Damola Ajayi

The Hive Stadium, London

Barnet 54%
Draw 24%
Tranmere 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
8 Corners 4
10 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2

Barnet vs Tranmere overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Tranmere

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBarnetDrawTranmere
Model49.1%26.2%24.7%
Market55.2%23.8%21.0%
Final53.7%24.4%21.9%
Edge-1.5%+0.6%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Barnet

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Barnet ↓ / Tranmere → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Barnet and Tranmere expected goals

Barnet 1.70
Tranmere 1.15

Total expected goals: 2.85

Barnet and Tranmere attack and defence ratings

Barnet

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Tranmere

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Barnet vs Tranmere: result vs prediction

Barnet 3 – 0 Tranmere

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Barnet vs Tranmere markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Barnet 53.7% 1.86 -1.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.3% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.0% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.9% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Barnet53.7%
Draw24.4%
Tranmere21.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%
Both teams to scoreYes57.0%
No43.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.1%
12 (either side)75.6%
X2 (draw or away)46.3%
Handicap -1Barnet win27.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.0%
Loss50.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
2-19.6%
1-08.7%

Barnet vs Tranmere stats

Barnet and Tranmere recent form

newest first
Barnet DWDLWW
Tranmere WDWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Barnet vs Tranmere head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

3Barnet wins 0Draws 0Tranmere wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-17TranmereBarnetLeague Two1-2
2026-01-27BarnetTranmereLeague Two1-0
2025-10-11TranmereBarnetLeague Two0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Barnet vs Tranmere odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.2%, draw 23.8%, away 21.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.70 3.95 4.36
Bet365 1.67 3.90 4.75
BetVictor 1.65 3.75 4.33
Betano 1.70 3.85 4.55
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.50
Dafabet 1.72 4.10 4.70
Marathonbet 1.68 3.95 4.40
Pinnacle 1.72 4.01 4.50
SBO 1.60 3.47 3.94
William Hill 1.70 3.60 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.69 ▲ +0.03
X 3.92 ▼ -0.07
2 4.45 ▼ -0.15

3 snapshots recorded, from .