Crewe
vs
Barnet
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.60.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Crewe vs Barnet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs Barnet
| Probability | Crewe | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 22.6% | 48.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.8% | 22.6% | 48.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Crewe vs Barnet match preview
Crewe faces Barnet in a League Two clash, with our model indicating a 29% chance of a Crewe victory, a 23% likelihood of a draw, and a 49% probability that Barnet will win. The expected goals suggest Crewe will score around 1.60, while Barnet is projected to net approximately 2.10. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Crewe has recorded two losses, one win, and a draw in their last five matches, while Barnet has shown stronger form with four wins and a draw in their last five outings. Additionally, there is a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 72%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 71%. The head-to-head record shows Barnet with one win and one draw against Crewe in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crewe and Barnet expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Crewe and Barnet attack and defence ratings
Crewe
Barnet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crewe vs Barnet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 28.8% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Barnet | 48.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% |
| No | 29.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Crewe vs Barnet stats
Crewe and Barnet recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crewe and Barnet season so far
Crewe record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Barnet record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crewe vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Barnet | Crewe | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Crewe | Barnet | League Two | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.