Crewe
vs
Barnet
1 – 1 Full time
| 33′ | Reece Hutchinson | ||
| 34′ | Tom Knowles | ||
| 36′ | Nikola Tavares | ||
| 45′ | Nnamdi Ofoborh | ||
| 60′ | Nnamdi OfoborhJake Reeves | ||
| 61′ | Tom KnowlesJ Maskell | ||
| 61′ | Romoney Crichlow-NobleZac Williams | ||
| 64′ | Conor ThomasJoe White | ||
| 64′ | Charlie McNeillAdrien thibaut | ||
| 64′ | Joel TabinerCalum·Agius | ||
| 72′ | Oisin Gallagher | ||
| 76′ | Charlie LakinDamola Ajayi | ||
| 80′ | Kabongo TshimangaIsiah Noel Williams | ||
| 85′ | Zac Williams |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 150 | Accurate passes | 147 |
Crewe vs Barnet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs Barnet
| Probability | Crewe | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.6% | 22.1% | 51.3% |
| Market | 31.5% | 26.1% | 42.4% |
| Final | 30.3% | 25.1% | 44.6% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -1.0% | +2.2% |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crewe and Barnet expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Crewe and Barnet attack and defence ratings
Crewe
Barnet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Crewe vs Barnet: result vs prediction
Crewe 1 – 1 Barnet
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crewe vs Barnet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 44.6% | 2.24 | +2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 30.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Barnet | 44.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.9% |
| No | 29.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Crewe vs Barnet stats
Crewe and Barnet recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crewe and Barnet going into this match
Crewe record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Barnet record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crewe vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Barnet | Crewe | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Crewe | Barnet | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2018-03-30 | Barnet | Crewe | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2017-08-19 | Crewe | Barnet | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2017-05-06 | Crewe | Barnet | League Two | 4-1 |
| 2016-11-19 | Barnet | Crewe | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2012-01-28 | Barnet | Crewe | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2011-09-10 | Crewe | Barnet | League Two | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crewe vs Barnet odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 26.1%, away 42.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.54 | 2.17 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.23 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.54 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.73 | 2.20 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.21 | 2.06 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .