Barnet
vs
York
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Barnet vs York overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs York
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 20.0% | 26.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.9% | 20.0% | 26.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.76.
Barnet vs York match preview
Barnet faces York in a League Two matchup with a kickoff scheduled for October 3, 2026. Barnet holds a 54% probability of winning, while York has a 26% chance, and a draw is at 20%. The expected goals for Barnet are 2.52, compared to York's 1.77, suggesting a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has an 8% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 77%.
In terms of recent form, Barnet has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while York has achieved three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. Historically, Barnet has a slight edge in their last ten encounters with five wins to York's four, along with one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and York expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.29
Barnet and York attack and defence ratings
Barnet
York
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnet vs York markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 53.9% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| York | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.9% |
| No | 23.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 34.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |
Barnet vs York stats
Barnet and York recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnet and York season so far
Barnet record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnet vs York head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-18 | Barnet | York | National League | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-22 | York | Barnet | National League | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Barnet | York | National League | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-26 | York | Barnet | National League | 2-4 |
| 2023-04-03 | York | Barnet | National League | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-01 | Barnet | York | National League | 0-5 |
| 2016-03-12 | York | Barnet | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2015-10-17 | Barnet | York | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2013-02-16 | York | Barnet | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2012-08-25 | Barnet | York | League Two | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.