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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

2 – 1 Full time

12′Charlie McNeill
18′Jordan Gibson
61′Alistair Smith
62′Conor Thomas
66′Harry CornickAron Sasu
66′Ollie HarrisonCallum Maycock
67′Myles HippolyteZack Nelson
70′Reece Hutchinson
71′Charlie McNeillAdrien thibaut
71′Conor ThomasOwen lunt
76′Jordan GibsonCalum·Agius
76′Josh MarchJoel Tabiner
78′Joe White
79′Alistair SmithAndy Yiadom
79′Steven SessegnonDonnell McNeilly
82′Andy Yiadom
84′Callum Maycock
87′James Tilley
89′Adrien thibaut
90′L. Billington
90′Joe WhiteKyle Ure

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Crewe 44%
Draw 28%
AFC Wimbledon 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
58 Possession % 42
3 Corners 10
10 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCreweDrawAFC Wimbledon
Model55.3%27.2%17.5%
Market39.9%28.1%32.0%
Final43.7%27.9%28.4%
Edge+3.9%-0.2%-3.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Crewe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Crewe below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Crewe ↓ / AFC Wimbledon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 13% 13% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon expected goals

Crewe 1.61
AFC Wimbledon 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.42

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings

Crewe

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.97 -3%

AFC Wimbledon

Attack 0.56 -44%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon: result vs prediction

Crewe 2 – 1 AFC Wimbledon

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Crewe 43.7% 2.29 +3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.5% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 54.5% 1.84 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Crewe43.7%
Draw27.9%
AFC Wimbledon28.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.5%
Under 2.556.5%
Both teams to scoreYes45.5%
No54.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.6%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)56.3%
Handicap -1Crewe win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.8%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.2%
1-112.7%
2-011.6%

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon stats

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon recent form

newest first
Crewe DLLWWW
AFC Wimbledon LDLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Crewe wins 6Draws 2AFC Wimbledon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-02-11AFC WimbledonCreweLeague Two3-0
2025-01-28CreweAFC WimbledonLeague Two1-1
2024-03-23CreweAFC WimbledonLeague Two1-1
2023-09-16AFC WimbledonCreweLeague Two2-2
2023-01-07CreweAFC WimbledonLeague Two0-0
2022-10-25AFC WimbledonCreweLeague Two1-1
2022-04-15CreweAFC WimbledonLeague One3-1
2021-11-23AFC WimbledonCreweLeague One3-2
2021-01-23CreweAFC WimbledonLeague One1-1
2020-12-19AFC WimbledonCreweLeague One1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 28.1%, away 32.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.36 3.34 2.89
Bet365 2.30 3.30 3.10
BetVictor 2.25 3.20 2.90
Betano 2.50 3.25 2.75
Betfair 2.30 3.30 2.90
Dafabet 2.36 3.40 3.10
Marathonbet 2.34 3.34 2.88
Pinnacle 2.40 3.28 3.05
SBO 2.10 2.97 2.80
William Hill 2.30 3.00 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▼ -0.19
X 3.29 ▲ +0.02
2 2.90 ▲ +0.22

3 snapshots recorded, from .