Crewe
vs
AFC Wimbledon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Crewe
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon
| Probability | Crewe | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 26.1% | 16.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.7% | 26.1% | 16.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Crewe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon match preview
Crewe faces AFC Wimbledon in the FA Cup with a probability model favoring Crewe at 58%, while a draw stands at 26% and AFC Wimbledon at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Crewe are 1.69, compared to 0.79 for AFC Wimbledon, indicating a stronger offensive performance from Crewe.
In terms of recent form, Crewe has recorded two losses followed by three matches without defeat, while AFC Wimbledon has struggled, with four consecutive losses and only two draws in their last six matches. The model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a potentially competitive match despite the contrasting form.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crewe and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Crewe and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings
Crewe
AFC Wimbledon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 57.7% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 16.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 12.0% |
Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon stats
Crewe and AFC Wimbledon recent form
| Crewe |
LLWWWD |
| AFC Wimbledon |
DLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.