Crewe
vs
Newport County
2 – 2 Full time
Crewe vs Newport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs Newport County
| Probability | Crewe | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.3% | 26.7% | 43.9% |
| Market | 45.3% | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| Final | 41.3% | 27.3% | 31.4% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -0.2% | +4.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crewe and Newport County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Crewe and Newport County attack and defence ratings
Crewe
Newport County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Crewe vs Newport County: result vs prediction
Crewe 2 – 2 Newport County
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crewe vs Newport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 41.3% | 2.42 | -4.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 41.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Newport County | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% |
| No | 41.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.3% | |
| Loss | 70.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
Crewe vs Newport County stats
Crewe and Newport County recent form
| Crewe |
WDLLWW |
| Newport County |
WWLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crewe and Newport County going into this match
Crewe record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Newport County record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crewe vs Newport County head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Newport County | Crewe | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Crewe | Newport County | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Crewe | Newport County | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-28 | Newport County | Crewe | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-29 | Newport County | Crewe | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-15 | Crewe | Newport County | League Two | 4-2 |
| 2023-05-08 | Newport County | Crewe | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2022-12-02 | Crewe | Newport County | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2019-08-24 | Newport County | Crewe | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crewe vs Newport County odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.3%, draw 27.5%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.32 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.32 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.44 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.12 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .