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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Newport County vs Walsall

3 – 1 Full time

7′Andrew Dallas
19′Kion Etete
23′Michael Adu-Poku
28′Charlie Crew
30′L. Grant
56′Michael Adu-PokuAaron Lewis
59′James Furlong
60′Kion Etete
63′Lewis SimperReece Smith
63′Andrew DallasTaione Richard Evumena Sodje
63′Charlie CrewIsaac Moore
76′Aaron PressleyAlbert Adomah
79′Cameron Normanjoe thomas
88′Reece Smith
90′Matthew SmithCameron Evans
90′Yahya BambaShaquille Gwengwe
90′Kion EteteJames Crole
90′Courtney Alphonso ClarkeRyan Sjoerdsma

Rodney Parade, Newport

Newport County 37%
Draw 28%
Walsall 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 6
42 Possession % 58
3 Corners 4
9 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1
5 Saves 4

Newport County vs Walsall overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Walsall

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewport CountyDrawWalsall
Model35.8%31.3%32.8%
Market37.1%27.5%35.4%
Final36.8%28.5%34.8%
Edge-0.3%+1.0%-0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newport County ↓ / Walsall → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Newport County and Walsall expected goals

Newport County 1.16
Walsall 1.10

Total expected goals: 2.26

Newport County and Walsall attack and defence ratings

Newport County

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Walsall

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newport County vs Walsall: result vs prediction

Newport County 3 – 1 Walsall

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Newport County vs Walsall markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newport County 36.8% 2.72 -0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 52.9% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.5% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.2% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newport County36.8%
Draw28.5%
Walsall34.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%
Both teams to scoreYes47.1%
No52.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.2%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)63.2%
Handicap -1Newport County win15.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss64.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-011.8%
1-010.8%

Newport County vs Walsall stats

Newport County and Walsall recent form

newest first
Newport County WLDDWD
Walsall WLWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newport County vs Walsall head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Newport County wins 4Draws 4Walsall wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21WalsallNewport CountyLeague Two2-1
2025-11-08Newport CountyWalsallLeague Two2-4
2025-04-21Newport CountyWalsallLeague Two0-0
2024-12-29WalsallNewport CountyLeague Two2-0
2024-02-10WalsallNewport CountyLeague Two0-3
2023-10-20Newport CountyWalsallLeague Two3-3
2023-02-18WalsallNewport CountyLeague Two1-1
2022-08-06Newport CountyWalsallLeague Two0-1
2022-01-01WalsallNewport CountyLeague Two3-3
2021-09-18Newport CountyWalsallLeague Two2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newport County vs Walsall odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.5%, away 35.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.50 3.40 2.62
Bet365 2.60 3.25 2.70
BetVictor 2.50 3.25 2.55
Betano 2.57 3.35 2.62
Betfair 2.50 3.40 2.63
Dafabet 2.60 3.45 2.70
Marathonbet 2.50 3.40 2.62
Pinnacle 2.63 3.39 2.67
SBO 2.39 2.95 2.42
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▼ -0.02
X 3.37 ▲ +0.04
2 2.62 ▼ -0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .