Newport County
vs
Walsall
Garuda Lions Prediction: Walsall
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Newport County vs Walsall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Walsall
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 36.5% | 36.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.7% | 36.5% | 36.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Newport County vs Walsall match preview
Newport County faces Walsall in the FA Cup, with the probabilities indicating a close contest. Newport County has a 27% chance of winning, while Walsall holds a slight edge at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1 in favor of Walsall, occurring with a 16% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Newport County recording one win in their last five matches and Walsall managing two wins in the same timeframe.
In terms of expected goals, Newport County is projected to score 0.76, whereas Walsall is expected to net 0.94. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 24%, while both teams to score is estimated at 34%. Historically, Walsall has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Newport County.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newport County and Walsall expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.70
Newport County and Walsall attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Walsall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Newport County vs Walsall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Walsall | 36.8% | 2.72 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 26.7% |
| Draw | 36.5% | |
| Walsall | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.7% |
| No | 66.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Walsall win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.6% |
| 0-1 | 15.9% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Newport County vs Walsall stats
Newport County and Walsall recent form
| Newport County |
LDDWDW |
| Walsall |
WDDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County vs Walsall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Walsall | Newport County | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Newport County | Walsall | League Two | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.