Newport County
vs
Swindon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newport County
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Newport County vs Swindon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Swindon Town
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 27.3% | 19.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.9% | 27.3% | 19.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Newport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Newport County vs Swindon Town match preview
Newport County will host Swindon Town in a League Two clash on November 21, 2026. According to our model, Newport County has a 53% probability of winning, while Swindon Town stands at 20%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Newport County are 1.61 compared to Swindon Town's 0.90, suggesting a stronger attacking performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Newport County has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Swindon Town's form includes two wins, two draws, and two losses. Notably, in their last two encounters, Newport County has not secured any wins against Swindon Town, who have won both matches. The model indicates a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newport County and Swindon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Newport County and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Swindon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newport County vs Swindon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 52.9% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Swindon Town | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.6% |
| No | 51.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Newport County vs Swindon Town stats
Newport County and Swindon Town recent form
| Newport County |
WWLDDW |
| Swindon Town |
LWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County and Swindon Town season so far
Newport County record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newport County vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Swindon Town | Newport County | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newport County | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.