Oldham
vs
Exeter City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Exeter City
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Oldham vs Exeter City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oldham vs Exeter City
| Probability | Oldham | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.3% | 35.6% | 39.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.3% | 35.6% | 39.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Exeter City
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Oldham vs Exeter City match preview
Oldham faces Exeter City in a League Two matchup, with our model assigning a 25% probability of an Oldham victory, a 36% chance of a draw, and a 39% likelihood of an Exeter City win. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance of occurring. Expected goals for Oldham stand at 0.75, while Exeter City is projected at 1.00.
In terms of recent form, Oldham has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Exeter City has been in stronger form, with four wins and one draw in their latest outings. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 26%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 35%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oldham and Exeter City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.76
Oldham and Exeter City attack and defence ratings
Oldham
Exeter City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats
- Grimsby vs Rotherham
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats
- Tranmere vs Colchester
Before and after this match
Oldham vs Exeter City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 25.3% |
| Draw | 35.6% | |
| Exeter City | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.8% |
| No | 65.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Exeter City win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 0-1 | 16.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Oldham vs Exeter City stats
Oldham and Exeter City recent form
| Oldham |
WWLDLW |
| Exeter City |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oldham and Exeter City season so far
Oldham record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
Exeter City record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.