Gillingham
vs
Crewe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gillingham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.33.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Gillingham vs Crewe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Crewe
| Probability | Gillingham | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 26.4% | 30.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.5% | 26.4% | 30.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gillingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.33.
Gillingham vs Crewe match preview
Gillingham faces Crewe in a League Two matchup with Gillingham holding a 43% probability of winning, while Crewe sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Gillingham, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with an expected goals figure of 1.63 for Gillingham and 1.33 for Crewe.
Recent form indicates Gillingham has recorded two wins in their last six matches, while Crewe has achieved three victories in the same timeframe. In their last two encounters, Gillingham and Crewe have each secured one win. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gillingham and Crewe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Gillingham and Crewe attack and defence ratings
Gillingham
Crewe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gillingham vs Crewe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 43.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Crewe | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Gillingham vs Crewe stats
Gillingham and Crewe recent form
| Gillingham |
LWLDLW |
| Crewe |
WDLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gillingham and Crewe season so far
Gillingham record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Crewe record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gillingham vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Crewe | Gillingham | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Gillingham | Crewe | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.