Colchester
vs
Gillingham
2 – 0 Full time
Colchester vs Gillingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colchester vs Gillingham
| Probability | Colchester | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 30.8% | 37.7% |
| Market | 44.4% | 27.9% | 27.6% |
| Final | 41.2% | 28.7% | 30.1% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.7% | +2.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colchester and Gillingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Colchester and Gillingham attack and defence ratings
Colchester
Gillingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Colchester vs Gillingham: result vs prediction
Colchester 2 – 0 Gillingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colchester vs Gillingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 41.2% | 2.43 | -3.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 41.2% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Gillingham | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.4% |
| No | 51.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colchester win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 68.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
Colchester vs Gillingham stats
Colchester and Gillingham recent form
| Colchester |
WLLDDL |
| Gillingham |
LWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colchester and Gillingham going into this match
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gillingham record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Colchester vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Gillingham | Colchester | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Colchester | Gillingham | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Colchester | Gillingham | EFL Trophy | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-01 | Gillingham | Colchester | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Colchester | Gillingham | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2024-01-01 | Colchester | Gillingham | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2023-08-26 | Gillingham | Colchester | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2023-01-21 | Colchester | Gillingham | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2022-12-26 | Gillingham | Colchester | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-11 | Gillingham | Colchester | EFL Trophy | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colchester vs Gillingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 27.9%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.34 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.34 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.41 | 3.51 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.06 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .