Tranmere
vs
Colchester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tranmere
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tranmere vs Colchester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tranmere vs Colchester
| Probability | Tranmere | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 29.9% | 23.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.7% | 29.9% | 23.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tranmere
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Tranmere vs Colchester match preview
Tranmere hosts Colchester in this League Two clash, with Tranmere holding a 47% probability of winning according to our model, while Colchester stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Tranmere, occurring at a rate of 13%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Tranmere recording L-W-D-W-L-D in their last six matches, and Colchester struggling with W-L-L-D-D-L.
In terms of expected goals, Tranmere is forecasted to score 1.39, while Colchester is at 0.91. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and both teams to score is at 46%. Historically, in their last two encounters, Tranmere has yet to secure a win, with one draw and one victory for Colchester.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tranmere and Colchester expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Tranmere and Colchester attack and defence ratings
Tranmere
Colchester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tranmere vs Colchester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 46.7% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Colchester | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
Tranmere vs Colchester stats
Tranmere and Colchester recent form
| Tranmere |
LWDWLD |
| Colchester |
WLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tranmere and Colchester season so far
Tranmere record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tranmere vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Tranmere | Colchester | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Colchester | Tranmere | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.