Gillingham
vs
Barrow
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gillingham
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Gillingham vs Barrow overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Barrow
| Probability | Gillingham | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 27.6% | 23.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.5% | 27.6% | 23.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gillingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.01.
Gillingham vs Barrow match preview
Gillingham hosts Barrow in the FA Cup with a 49% probability of victory according to our model, while a draw stands at 28% and Barrow at 23%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Gillingham, with an expected goals tally of 1.58 for Gillingham compared to 1.01 for Barrow.
In terms of recent form, Gillingham has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Barrow has shown slightly better form with two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record favors Gillingham, who have one win and one draw against Barrow in their last two encounters. The model suggests a 52% chance for both teams to score, with 48% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gillingham and Barrow expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Gillingham and Barrow attack and defence ratings
Gillingham
Barrow
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Gillingham vs Barrow markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 49.5% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Barrow | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Gillingham vs Barrow stats
Gillingham and Barrow recent form
| Gillingham |
LDLWDL |
| Barrow |
WDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gillingham vs Barrow head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Barrow | Gillingham | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Gillingham | Barrow | League Two | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.