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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Gillingham vs Barrow

0 – 1 Full time

54′R. OtegbayoDani Amos
54′Rekeem HarperInnes Cameron
59′Harry WaldockGarath McCleary
78′Robbie McKenzieArmani Little
79′Lamin SillahS. Kendall
80′Innes Cameron
83′Sebastian Blake ThompsonDan Mooney
83′Arian AllenMikey Lane
84′isaac marriottKeaton Brodie Ward
90′Innes Cameron
90′Ronan Chapman Hale

Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham

Gillingham 49%
Draw 26%
Barrow 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 5
52 Possession % 48
5 Corners 7
15 Fouls 13
5 Offsides 3
4 Saves 3

Gillingham vs Barrow overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Barrow

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGillinghamDrawBarrow
Model51.7%26.8%21.5%
Market47.7%26.2%26.1%
Final48.7%26.3%25.0%
Edge+1.0%+0.1%-1.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Gillingham

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.99.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gillingham ↓ / Barrow → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Gillingham and Barrow expected goals

Gillingham 1.65
Barrow 0.99

Total expected goals: 2.65

Gillingham and Barrow attack and defence ratings

Gillingham

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Barrow

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gillingham vs Barrow: result vs prediction

Gillingham 0 – 1 Barrow

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Gillingham vs Barrow markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gillingham 48.7% 2.05 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.6% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.1% 1.92 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.3% 2.07 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gillingham48.7%
Draw26.3%
Barrow25.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%
Both teams to scoreYes52.1%
No47.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.0%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)51.3%
Handicap -1Gillingham win28.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss48.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-010.5%
2-09.7%

Gillingham vs Barrow stats

Gillingham and Barrow recent form

newest first
Gillingham WLDLWD
Barrow WDLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gillingham vs Barrow head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Gillingham wins 2Draws 3Barrow wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28BarrowGillinghamLeague Two0-1
2025-12-13GillinghamBarrowLeague Two2-2
2025-02-08BarrowGillinghamLeague Two3-0
2024-09-28GillinghamBarrowLeague Two2-0
2024-04-13GillinghamBarrowLeague Two3-0
2024-03-05BarrowGillinghamLeague Two2-0
2023-04-01BarrowGillinghamLeague Two2-1
2022-10-22GillinghamBarrowLeague Two1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gillingham vs Barrow odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.7%, draw 26.2%, away 26.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.94 3.55 3.66
Bet365 1.95 3.50 3.70
BetVictor 1.93 3.40 3.50
Betano 1.98 3.55 3.55
Betfair 1.95 3.60 3.50
Dafabet 2.00 3.70 3.75
Marathonbet 1.92 3.55 3.66
Pinnacle 2.02 3.63 3.56
William Hill 1.91 3.30 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.04
X 3.55 ▼ -0.15
2 3.56 ▼ -0.17

3 snapshots recorded, from .