Rotherham
vs
Crawley Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rotherham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.19.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rotherham is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
| Probability | Rotherham | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 25.1% | 23.8% |
| Market | 45.0% | 26.3% | 28.7% |
| Final | 46.5% | 26.0% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.3% | -1.2% |
Why Rotherham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.19.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.4% per unit staked (our 46.5% × 2.20 − 1).
Rotherham vs Crawley Town match preview
Rotherham enters this match with a probability of 45% to win against Crawley Town, who have a 29% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Rotherham, with an expected goals tally of 1.65 for Rotherham and 1.46 for Crawley Town. Additionally, there is a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Rotherham has struggled, recording five consecutive matches without a win (L-D-D-L-L-L), while Crawley Town has shown some resilience with a recent win, followed by a draw and two losses (W-D-L-L-D-L). The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rotherham and Crawley Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Rotherham and Crawley Town attack and defence ratings
Rotherham
Crawley Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rotherham vs Crawley Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 46.5% | 2.15 | +1.5% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 46.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Crawley Town | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% |
| No | 40.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rotherham win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Rotherham vs Crawley Town stats
Rotherham and Crawley Town recent form
| Rotherham |
WLDDLL |
| Crawley Town |
LWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rotherham and Crawley Town season so far
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crawley Town record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Rotherham | Crawley Town | League One | 0-4 |
| 2024-11-23 | Crawley Town | Rotherham | League One | 1-0 |
| 2014-01-25 | Rotherham | Crawley Town | League One | 2-2 |
| 2013-08-17 | Crawley Town | Rotherham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2012-03-24 | Crawley Town | Rotherham | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2011-11-26 | Rotherham | Crawley Town | League Two | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rotherham vs Crawley Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 26.4%, away 28.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.48 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 3.62 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.57 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .