Colchester
vs
Worcester City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Worcester City
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Colchester vs Worcester City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colchester vs Worcester City
| Probability | Colchester | Draw | Worcester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.8% | 34.0% | 42.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.8% | 34.0% | 42.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Worcester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Colchester vs Worcester City match preview
Colchester faces Worcester City in the FA Cup with a probability model indicating a competitive match. Colchester has a 24% chance of winning, while Worcester City is favored at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 16% likelihood. Colchester's expected goals stand at 0.77, compared to Worcester City's 1.11, suggesting that the visitors may have the upper hand in offensive performance.
Recent form shows Colchester struggling with a sequence of results, including three draws and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Worcester City comes into the match with a strong record, having won four of their last six games. The model indicates a 29% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 37% probability that both teams will score, reflecting the potential for a tightly contested encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colchester and Worcester City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
Colchester and Worcester City attack and defence ratings
Colchester
Worcester City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Colchester vs Worcester City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Worcester City | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 23.8% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Worcester City | 42.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.1% |
| No | 62.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Worcester City win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.7% |
| 0-1 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Colchester vs Worcester City stats
Colchester and Worcester City recent form
| Colchester |
LDDLDD |
| Worcester City |
WDWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colchester and Worcester City season so far
Worcester City record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.