Worcester City
vs
Chorley
1 – 0 Full time
Worcester City vs Chorley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Worcester City vs Chorley
| Probability | Worcester City | Draw | Chorley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 30.2% | 29.9% |
| Market | 37.0% | 25.9% | 37.1% |
| Final | 37.7% | 27.0% | 35.3% |
| Edge | +2.9% | +4.3% | -7.2% |
Why Worcester City
- The market prices Worcester City below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Worcester City and Chorley expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Worcester City and Chorley attack and defence ratings
Worcester City
Chorley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Worcester City vs Chorley: result vs prediction
Worcester City 1 – 0 Chorley
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Worcester City vs Chorley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Worcester City | 37.7% | 2.65 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Worcester City | 37.7% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Chorley | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Worcester City win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Worcester City vs Chorley stats
Worcester City and Chorley recent form
| Worcester City |
DWWWDL |
| Chorley |
DWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Worcester City and Chorley going into this match
Worcester City record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Worcester City vs Chorley head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Chorley | Worcester City | England FA Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Worcester City vs Chorley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 25.9%, away 37.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.38 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.50 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.38 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.33 | 2.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .