Chorley
vs
Worcester City
1 – 1 Full time
| 35′ | Chorley | ||
| 41′ | Chorley | ||
| 52′ | Chorley | ||
| 72′ | Chorley | ||
| 90′ | Worcester City |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
Chorley vs Worcester City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chorley vs Worcester City
| Probability | Chorley | Draw | Worcester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 28.9% | 28.7% |
| Market | 58.5% | 23.4% | 18.1% |
| Final | 54.5% | 24.7% | 20.8% |
| Edge | -16.2% | +5.6% | +10.6% |
Why Chorley
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chorley and Worcester City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Chorley and Worcester City attack and defence ratings
Chorley
Worcester City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chorley vs Worcester City: result vs prediction
Chorley 1 – 1 Worcester City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Chorley vs Worcester City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chorley | 54.5% | 1.84 | -16.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chorley | 54.5% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Worcester City | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chorley win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
Chorley vs Worcester City stats
Chorley and Worcester City recent form
| Chorley |
WWLWLW |
| Worcester City |
WWWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chorley vs Worcester City head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Chorley vs Worcester City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 23.4%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 3.86 | 4.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.86 | 4.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .