Exeter City
vs
Cheltenham
1 – 0 Full time
| 40′ | James Wilson | ||
| 45′ | K. Otchere | ||
| 51′ | Lakyle·Samuel | ||
| 61′ | Jake Doyle HayesTaylor Perry | ||
| 61′ | Ryan BroomJake Bickerstaff | ||
| 61′ | Andreas WeimannGeorge Miller | ||
| 68′ | Sonny CoxJosh Gordon | ||
| 81′ | K. OtchereGeorge Nurse | ||
| 85′ | Reece ColeLiam Oakes | ||
| 85′ | Anthony ScullyEdward James | ||
| 87′ | Jordan ShipleyRobbie Cundy |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 189 | Accurate passes | 288 |
Exeter City vs Cheltenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Exeter City vs Cheltenham
| Probability | Exeter City | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 29.4% | 22.7% |
| Market | 50.0% | 26.4% | 23.6% |
| Final | 49.5% | 27.2% | 23.3% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.7% | -0.2% |
Why Exeter City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Exeter City and Cheltenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Exeter City and Cheltenham attack and defence ratings
Exeter City
Cheltenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham: result vs prediction
Exeter City 1 – 0 Cheltenham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Exeter City vs Cheltenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 49.5% | 2.02 | -0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 49.5% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Cheltenham | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Exeter City win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Exeter City vs Cheltenham stats
Exeter City and Cheltenham recent form
| Exeter City |
WLWWDW |
| Cheltenham |
WLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Exeter City and Cheltenham going into this match
Exeter City record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Cheltenham record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | EFL Trophy | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-13 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-01 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | League One | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Exeter City | Cheltenham | League One | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-18 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | League One | 3-1 |
| 2022-08-20 | Exeter City | Cheltenham | League One | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-09 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | League Cup | 0-7 |
| 2021-10-05 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | EFL Trophy | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-13 | Exeter City | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-05 | Cheltenham | Exeter City | League Two | 5-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Exeter City vs Cheltenham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 26.4%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.52 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 3.52 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.79 | 4.00 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 3.04 | 3.46 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .