Cheltenham
vs
Bristol Rovers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cheltenham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 26.7% | 26.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.0% | 26.7% | 26.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cheltenham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers match preview
Cheltenham hosts Bristol Rovers in a League Two clash where the probabilities suggest a competitive match. Cheltenham has a 47% chance of winning, while Bristol Rovers stands at 26%, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline forecasted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cheltenham, which has a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 57% chance, and there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form indicates Cheltenham's inconsistency, with a record of L-W-L-W-W-L, while Bristol Rovers has struggled, registering W-L-D-L-L-L. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one win. Expected goals are 1.65 for Cheltenham and 1.18 for Bristol Rovers, highlighting Cheltenham's offensive edge. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Bristol Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 47.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Bristol Rovers | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cheltenham win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers stats
Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers recent form
| Cheltenham |
LWLWWL |
| Bristol Rovers |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers season so far
Cheltenham record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bristol Rovers | Cheltenham | League Two | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Cheltenham | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.