Oldham
vs
Crawley Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oldham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Oldham vs Crawley Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oldham vs Crawley Town
| Probability | Oldham | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 25.9% | 27.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.3% | 25.9% | 27.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oldham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Oldham vs Crawley Town match preview
Oldham faces Crawley Town in a League Two matchup with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Oldham has a 46% probability of winning, while Crawley Town stands at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Oldham, with an expected goals tally of 1.71 for Oldham and 1.28 for Crawley Town.
In terms of recent form, Oldham has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Crawley Town has struggled, with no wins in their last six fixtures. The model suggests a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oldham and Crawley Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Oldham and Crawley Town attack and defence ratings
Oldham
Crawley Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oldham vs Crawley Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 46.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Crawley Town | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win | 25.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.5% |
Oldham vs Crawley Town stats
Oldham and Crawley Town recent form
| Oldham |
DLWDLL |
| Crawley Town |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oldham and Crawley Town season so far
Oldham record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Crawley Town record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Oldham vs Crawley Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Oldham | Crawley Town | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Crawley Town | Oldham | League Two | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.