Gillingham
vs
Grimsby
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gillingham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Gillingham vs Grimsby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Grimsby
| Probability | Gillingham | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gillingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Gillingham vs Grimsby match preview
Gillingham hosts Grimsby in a League Two clash with Gillingham holding a 48% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Gillingham projected to score 1.67 and Grimsby 1.17. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Gillingham, with a 10% likelihood of occurring.
Recent form shows Gillingham with two wins in their last five matches, while Grimsby has struggled, winning only once in their last six outings. Both teams have a 57% chance of scoring, and there is a 54% probability that the match will see over 2.5 goals. Historically, Grimsby has the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gillingham and Grimsby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Gillingham and Grimsby attack and defence ratings
Gillingham
Grimsby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gillingham vs Grimsby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 48.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Grimsby | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Gillingham vs Grimsby stats
Gillingham and Grimsby recent form
| Gillingham |
LWDLWW |
| Grimsby |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gillingham and Grimsby season so far
Gillingham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Grimsby record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Gillingham vs Grimsby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Gillingham | Grimsby | League Two | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Grimsby | Gillingham | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.