Gillingham
vs
Port Vale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gillingham
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Gillingham vs Port Vale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Port Vale
| Probability | Gillingham | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 30.5% | 20.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.4% | 30.5% | 20.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gillingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.78.
Gillingham vs Port Vale match preview
Gillingham hosts Port Vale in a League Two clash with Gillingham holding a 56% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 15%. Gillingham's expected goals stand at 1.53, while Port Vale's is significantly lower at 0.71, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Gillingham has shown a strong performance with three wins in their last five matches, while Port Vale has experienced inconsistency, with only one win in their last five outings. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals are at 39%, and both teams to score is at 41%, suggesting a match that could lean towards a low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gillingham and Port Vale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Gillingham and Port Vale attack and defence ratings
Gillingham
Port Vale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gillingham vs Port Vale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 49.4% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 49.4% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Port Vale | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Gillingham vs Port Vale stats
Gillingham and Port Vale recent form
| Gillingham |
LWDLWW |
| Port Vale |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gillingham and Port Vale season so far
Gillingham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Port Vale record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.