Cheltenham
vs
Fleetwood Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fleetwood Town
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.8% | 26.2% | 51.0% |
| Market | 36.3% | 26.7% | 37.0% |
| Final | 32.9% | 26.6% | 40.5% |
| Edge | -13.4% | -0.5% | +13.9% |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town match preview
Cheltenham will face Fleetwood Town in a League Two clash, with the probabilities indicating a competitive match. According to our model, Cheltenham has a 31% chance of winning, while Fleetwood Town is favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.23 for Cheltenham and 1.42 for Fleetwood Town.
Recent form shows Cheltenham with two losses followed by a win, a draw, and another draw, while Fleetwood Town has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches. The head-to-head record favors Cheltenham, who have won once and drawn once in their last two encounters against Fleetwood Town. Both teams have a 55% probability of scoring, suggesting an engaging matchup is on the horizon.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 40.5% | 2.47 | +13.9% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 32.9% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Fleetwood Town | 40.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 9.4% |
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town stats
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town recent form
| Cheltenham |
LLLWDW |
| Fleetwood Town |
WDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town season so far
Cheltenham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fleetwood Town record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 26.7%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .