League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 12
Cheltenham
vs
Fleetwood Town
4 – 2 Full time
| 11′ | Adam Murphy | ||
| 17′ | Jay Lynch | ||
| 20′ | Ben Stevenson | ||
| 25′ | K. Otchere | ||
| 31′ | Shaun Rooney | ||
| 39′ | Jake Evans | ||
| 45′ | Will daviesChed Evans | ||
| 45′ | Adam MurphyCrispin McLean | ||
| 45′ | Ronan CoughlanConor Haughey | ||
| 50′ | Ched Evans | ||
| 64′ | Jonathan Tomkinson | ||
| 65′ | Ched Evans | ||
| 65′ | Stephen John Cotterill | ||
| 74′ | K. OtchereRyan Broom | ||
| 76′ | Lewis McCannAaron Loupalo-Bi | ||
| 80′ | Freddie willcox | ||
| 84′ | Jake EvansGeorge Miller | ||
| 85′ | Jordan ShipleyGeorge Nurse | ||
| 88′ | Andreas WeimannJake Bickerstaff | ||
| 88′ | Finley PotterR. Cirino | ||
| 89′ | R. Bennett |
Cheltenham
28%
Draw
27%
Fleetwood Town
44%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 231 | Accurate passes | 347 |
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
| Probability | Cheltenham | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.8% | 26.2% | 51.0% |
| Market | 30.1% | 27.6% | 42.3% |
| Final | 28.2% | 27.3% | 44.5% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -0.3% | +2.2% |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town expected goals
Cheltenham
1.08
Fleetwood Town
1.71
Total expected goals: 2.79
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town attack and defence ratings
Cheltenham
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.52 +52%
Fleetwood Town
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town: result vs prediction
Cheltenham 4 – 2 Fleetwood Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 44.5% | 2.25 | +2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 28.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Fleetwood Town | 44.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 9.4% |
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town stats
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town recent form
| Cheltenham |
LLLWDW |
| Fleetwood Town |
WDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town going into this match
Cheltenham record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fleetwood Town record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Cheltenham wins
2Draws
4Fleetwood Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-29 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-03 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League One | 0-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League One | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-16 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League One | 0-0 |
| 2022-02-12 | Cheltenham | Fleetwood Town | League One | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-21 | Fleetwood Town | Cheltenham | League One | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 27.6%, away 42.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.24 |
| SBO | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.10 ▲ +0.52
X
3.38 ▼ -0.10
2
2.20 ▼ -0.30
10 snapshots recorded, from .