Barnet
vs
Swindon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
2 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Barnet vs Swindon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Swindon Town
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.5% | 15.4% | 9.2% |
| Market | 57.4% | 23.1% | 19.5% |
| Final | 61.9% | 21.2% | 16.9% |
| Edge | +18.1% | -7.7% | -10.3% |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below the model: +18.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Barnet vs Swindon Town match preview
Barnet enters the match against Swindon Town with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Swindon Town's chances stand at just 8%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Barnet, with a forecast of 3.02 compared to Swindon Town's 0.94. Recent form also favors Barnet, who have recorded three wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Swindon Town has struggled with one win and four losses in the same period.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-0, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 76% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals, and a 59% probability that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and Swindon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Barnet and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings
Barnet
Swindon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnet vs Swindon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 61.9% | 1.62 | +18.1% | 1.66 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 61.9% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Swindon Town | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 55.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 24.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 3-0 | 8.7% |
Barnet vs Swindon Town stats
Barnet and Swindon Town recent form
| Barnet |
WWWWDD |
| Swindon Town |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnet and Swindon Town season so far
Barnet record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnet vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Barnet | Swindon Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-19 | Swindon Town | Barnet | League Two | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barnet vs Swindon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 23.2%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.72 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .