Barnet
vs
Swindon Town
1 – 3 Full time
| 8′ | Mitchell Clark | ||
| 35′ | Aaron Drinan | ||
| 37′ | Aaron Drinan | ||
| 58′ | Joe SnowdonLouis Millard | ||
| 63′ | Nikola TavaresTom Knowles | ||
| 64′ | Nnamdi OfoborhJake Reeves | ||
| 67′ | Jack ThomsonTom Nichols | ||
| 67′ | Matthew Virtue-ThickJames Debayo | ||
| 67′ | Oisin GallagherDamola Ajayi | ||
| 76′ | Aaron Drinanantwoine hackford | ||
| 76′ | S. InwoodJames Ball | ||
| 83′ | Idris KanuMyles Kenlock | ||
| 90′ | Kabongo Tshimanga | ||
| 90′ | Louis Millard |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 72 | Possession % | 28 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 11 |
| 488 | Accurate passes | 120 |
Barnet vs Swindon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Swindon Town
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.5% | 15.4% | 9.2% |
| Market | 63.7% | 20.6% | 15.7% |
| Final | 66.6% | 19.3% | 14.1% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -1.3% | -1.6% |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and Swindon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Barnet and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings
Barnet
Swindon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Barnet vs Swindon Town: result vs prediction
Barnet 1 – 3 Swindon Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnet vs Swindon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 66.6% | 1.50 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 66.6% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Swindon Town | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 55.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 24.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 3-0 | 8.7% |
Barnet vs Swindon Town stats
Barnet and Swindon Town recent form
| Barnet |
WWWWDD |
| Swindon Town |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnet and Swindon Town going into this match
Barnet record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnet vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Barnet | Swindon Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-19 | Swindon Town | Barnet | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2018-01-01 | Barnet | Swindon Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2017-09-02 | Swindon Town | Barnet | League Two | 1-4 |
| 2012-04-03 | Barnet | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2012-02-07 | Swindon Town | Barnet | EFL Trophy | 1-0 |
| 2012-01-10 | Barnet | Swindon Town | EFL Trophy | 1-1 |
| 2011-09-24 | Swindon Town | Barnet | League Two | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barnet vs Swindon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.7%, draw 20.6%, away 15.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.50 | 5.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.84 | 6.08 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.19 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .