Newport County
vs
Colchester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newport County
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Newport County vs Colchester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Colchester
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 29.0% | 28.0% |
| Market | 35.8% | 27.1% | 37.2% |
| Final | 37.6% | 27.5% | 34.9% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +1.9% | -9.1% |
Why Newport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.10.
- The market prices Newport County below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Newport County vs Colchester match preview
Newport County is set to face Colchester in their upcoming League Two match, with Newport holding a 43% probability of winning compared to Colchester's 28% and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Newport, with an expected goals tally of 1.42 for Newport and 1.10 for Colchester.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Newport County recording three draws and two losses in their last six matches, while Colchester has three draws, two losses, and one win. Historically, Colchester has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both matches against Newport County. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 52% chance that both teams will score and a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newport County and Colchester expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Newport County and Colchester attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Colchester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newport County vs Colchester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 37.6% | 2.66 | +7.2% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 37.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Colchester | 34.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Newport County vs Colchester stats
Newport County and Colchester recent form
| Newport County |
DWDDLL |
| Colchester |
DDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County and Colchester season so far
Newport County record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Newport County vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 4-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-03 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-01 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-05 | Newport County | Colchester | FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-22 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-22 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newport County vs Colchester odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 27.1%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.52 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 3.01 | 2.31 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .