Newport County
vs
Colchester
1 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | Christian DoidgeYahya Bamba | ||
| 40′ | Jay Williams | ||
| 48′ | Beryly Lubala | ||
| 58′ | Samuel Kuffour Jr.Robert Donald Hunt | ||
| 66′ | Beryly Lubalaronnie harvey | ||
| 66′ | Oscar thornBradley ihionvein | ||
| 71′ | Michael Adu-PokuTanatswa Nyakuhwa | ||
| 72′ | Shaquille GwengweGerard Garner | ||
| 76′ | Bradley ihionvein | ||
| 79′ | Tanatswa Nyakuhwa | ||
| 84′ | Paul DigbyKien Connelly | ||
| 85′ | Harrison BigginsMatthew Smith |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 103 | Accurate passes | 286 |
Newport County vs Colchester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Colchester
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 29.0% | 28.0% |
| Market | 35.9% | 26.9% | 37.2% |
| Final | 37.7% | 27.4% | 34.9% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +0.5% | -2.3% |
Why Newport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.10.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newport County and Colchester expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Newport County and Colchester attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Colchester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Newport County vs Colchester: result vs prediction
Newport County 1 – 0 Colchester
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newport County vs Colchester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 37.7% | 2.65 | +1.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 37.7% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Colchester | 34.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Newport County vs Colchester stats
Newport County and Colchester recent form
| Newport County |
DWDDLL |
| Colchester |
DDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County and Colchester going into this match
Newport County record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Newport County vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 4-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-03 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-01 | Colchester | Newport County | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-05 | Newport County | Colchester | FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-22 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-22 | Newport County | Colchester | League Two | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newport County vs Colchester odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 26.9%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.58 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.06 | 2.31 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .