Eastleigh
vs
Shrewsbury
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eastleigh
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.31.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury
| Probability | Eastleigh | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 26.5% | 29.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.9% | 26.5% | 29.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Eastleigh
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.31.
Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury match preview
Eastleigh faces Shrewsbury in the FA Cup with a 44% probability of winning, while Shrewsbury has a 30% chance and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Eastleigh, with an expected goals tally of 1.63 for Eastleigh and 1.31 for Shrewsbury.
Both teams are showing signs of offensive capability, with a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score. Eastleigh's recent form includes a mix of wins and losses, while Shrewsbury has recorded a draw and a series of wins and losses. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eastleigh and Shrewsbury expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Eastleigh and Shrewsbury attack and defence ratings
Eastleigh
Shrewsbury
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eastleigh | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eastleigh | 43.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Shrewsbury | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eastleigh win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 7.5% |
Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury stats
Eastleigh and Shrewsbury recent form
| Eastleigh |
WLWL |
| Shrewsbury |
DWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.