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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

2 – 1 Full time

7′Di'Shon Bernard
17′Ashley Maynard BrewerConnal Trueman
29′Yan Valery
66′Calum Kavanagh
71′Noah ChilversOliver Hammond
71′Liam PalmerMax Lowe
71′Jordi LiongolaSean Fusire
71′Ricardo Almeida SantosKieran Morrison
76′Davis Keillor-Dunn
85′Michael Joseph Mellon
85′Callum Slattery
90′Sean Fusire
90′Gus Scott-Morriss
90′Tom PettJosh Hawkes
97′Calum KavanaghElliott Nevitt
105′Emmanuel Monthe
105′Jamal LoweWilliam Grainger
105′Yan ValeryErnie Weaver
110′will sutton

Boundary Park, OldhamReferee: Martin Woods

Oldham 27%
Draw 27%
Sheffield Wednesday 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 6
29 Possession % 71
2 Corners 8
20 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 3
5 Saves 3
197 Accurate passes 678

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOldhamDrawSheffield Wednesday
Model28.7%32.8%38.5%
Market26.4%25.3%48.2%
Final27.0%27.2%45.8%
Edge+0.6%+1.9%-2.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oldham ↓ / Sheffield Wedn → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 13% 8% 1 11% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals

Oldham 0.94
Sheffield Wednesday 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.06

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday attack and defence ratings

Oldham

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Sheffield Wednesday

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday: result vs prediction

Oldham 2 – 1 Sheffield Wednesday

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sheffield Wednesday 45.8% 2.18 -2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.0% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 57.6% 1.74 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.5% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oldham27.0%
Draw27.2%
Sheffield Wednesday45.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.0%
Under 2.566.0%
Both teams to scoreYes42.4%
No57.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.2%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)73.0%
Handicap -1Sheffield Wednesday win16.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.0%
Loss61.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-014.1%
0-113.0%

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday stats

Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday recent form

newest first
Oldham WLDLWD
Sheffield Wednesday DDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Oldham wins 0Draws 3Sheffield Wednesday wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-01OldhamSheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs4-0
2012-08-13OldhamSheffield WednesdayLeague Cup2-4
2012-04-09Sheffield WednesdayOldhamLeague One3-0
2011-12-10OldhamSheffield WednesdayLeague One0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 25.3%, away 48.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.42 3.82 1.94
Bet365 4.00 3.50 1.90
BetVictor 3.30 3.60 1.93
Betano 3.55 3.65 1.93
Betfair 3.60 3.70 1.91
Dafabet 3.75 3.75 1.97
Marathonbet 3.42 3.82 1.92
Pinnacle 3.65 3.88 1.94
SBO 2.72 3.20 2.04
William Hill 3.50 3.60 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.52 ▼ -0.81
X 3.67 ▼ -0.33
2 1.93 ▲ +0.33

14 snapshots recorded, from .