Port Vale
vs
Northampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Port Vale
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Port Vale is the favourite, not a value bet.
Port Vale vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Northampton
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 39.0% | 26.1% |
| Market | 43.0% | 29.0% | 27.9% |
| Final | 41.0% | 31.5% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +2.5% | -0.5% |
Why Port Vale
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 41.0% × 2.20 − 1).
Port Vale vs Northampton match preview
Port Vale will host Northampton in a League Two clash on November 24, 2026. According to our model, Port Vale has a 41% chance of winning, while Northampton has a 27% probability of securing victory, with a 32% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Port Vale, with an expected goals figure of 0.65 for Port Vale and 0.81 for Northampton.
In terms of recent form, Port Vale has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Northampton has struggled, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their recent outings. Historically, Port Vale has performed well against Northampton, winning five of their last ten encounters, while Northampton has won two.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port Vale and Northampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.46
Port Vale and Northampton attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Northampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 41.0% | 2.44 | -2.0% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 41.0% |
| Draw | 31.5% | |
| Northampton | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.0% |
| No | 71.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Port Vale win | 7.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 74.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.4% |
| 1-0 | 17.1% | |
| 0-1 | 13.8% |
Port Vale vs Northampton stats
Port Vale and Northampton recent form
| Port Vale |
LDWWLW |
| Northampton |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port Vale and Northampton season so far
Port Vale record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Northampton record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Port Vale vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Northampton | Port Vale | League One | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Port Vale | Northampton | League One | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-01 | Northampton | Port Vale | League One | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-16 | Port Vale | Northampton | League One | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-12 | Port Vale | Northampton | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-07 | Northampton | Port Vale | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2020-02-08 | Northampton | Port Vale | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2019-08-10 | Port Vale | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2019-03-30 | Northampton | Port Vale | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2018-09-15 | Port Vale | Northampton | League Two | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Port Vale vs Northampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 29.0%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.20 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.28 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.34 | 4.27 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .