Crawley Town
vs
Barnet
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.41.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Crawley Town vs Barnet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crawley Town vs Barnet
| Probability | Crawley Town | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.2% | 19.5% | 64.3% |
| Market | 21.9% | 23.0% | 55.1% |
| Final | 20.5% | 22.1% | 57.4% |
| Edge | -1.4% | -0.9% | +2.3% |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.9% per unit staked (our 57.4% × 1.71 − 1).
Crawley Town vs Barnet match preview
Crawley Town faces Barnet in a League Two clash, with Crawley Town holding a 20% chance of victory compared to Barnet's 57%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Crawley Town's recent form shows a struggle, with their last six matches yielding just one draw and five losses. In contrast, Barnet has been in better shape, winning three of their last six games.
The expected goals for Crawley Town is 1.41, while Barnet's is significantly higher at 2.39. There is a strong likelihood of goals in this match, with our model indicating a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Crawley Town with four wins, Barnet with three, and three matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crawley Town and Barnet expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Crawley Town and Barnet attack and defence ratings
Crawley Town
Barnet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crawley Town vs Barnet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 57.4% | 1.74 | +2.3% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crawley Town | 20.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Barnet | 57.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 38.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Crawley Town vs Barnet stats
Crawley Town and Barnet recent form
| Crawley Town |
DLLDLL |
| Barnet |
WDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crawley Town and Barnet season so far
Crawley Town record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Barnet record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crawley Town vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Crawley Town | Barnet | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Barnet | Crawley Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2018-01-13 | Crawley Town | Barnet | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2017-09-23 | Barnet | Crawley Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2017-03-11 | Barnet | Crawley Town | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2016-08-20 | Crawley Town | Barnet | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2016-05-07 | Crawley Town | Barnet | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2015-12-19 | Barnet | Crawley Town | League Two | 4-2 |
| 2012-04-09 | Barnet | Crawley Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2011-12-30 | Crawley Town | Barnet | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crawley Town vs Barnet odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 23.0%, away 55.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.24 | 3.88 | 1.71 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 4.05 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 3.88 | 1.69 |
| Pinnacle | 4.04 | 4.31 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .