Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
AEK Athens FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC
| Probability | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | AEK Athens FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 31.2% | 31.8% |
| Market | 36.2% | 27.1% | 36.7% |
| Final | 36.4% | 28.2% | 35.5% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +4.1% | -4.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC match preview
Shakhtar Donetsk faces AEK Athens FC in an intriguing UEFA Champions League matchup on October 14, 2026. According to our model, Shakhtar has a 36% probability of winning, while AEK Athens FC is slightly behind at 35%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Shakhtar, with a probability of 11%. Expected goals are projected at 1.19 for Shakhtar and 1.08 for AEK Athens.
Recent form shows Shakhtar Donetsk with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while AEK Athens FC has been in excellent form, winning their last six games and drawing one prior. The model indicates a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting a competitive encounter ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC attack and defence ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk
AEK Athens FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 36.4% | 2.75 | +0.9% | 2.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 36.4% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| AEK Athens FC | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC stats
Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC recent form
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
WWWDWL |
| AEK Athens FC |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 27.1%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.58 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.48 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.52 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 3.06 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .