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Ukraine Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 9

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka

2 – 1 Full time

Arena Lviv, LvivReferee: Dmitriy Panchishin

Shakhtar Donetsk 74%
Draw 18%
Kolos Kovalivka 9%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShakhtar DonetskDrawKolos Kovalivka
Model64.2%22.1%13.7%
Market76.7%16.0%7.3%
Final73.6%17.5%8.9%
Edge-12.4%+6.1%+6.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Shakhtar Donetsk

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shakhtar Donet ↓ / Kolos Kovalivk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 10% 10% 2 12% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka expected goals

Shakhtar Donetsk 2.06
Kolos Kovalivka 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.91

Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka attack and defence ratings

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack 1.57 +57%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Kolos Kovalivka

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka: result vs prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk 2 – 1 Kolos Kovalivka

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Ukraine Premier League

Before and after this match

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Shakhtar Donetsk 73.6% 1.36 -12.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.6% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 91.1% 1.10 — —
Handicap -1 Shakhtar Donetsk win 41.1% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shakhtar Donetsk73.6%
Draw17.5%
Kolos Kovalivka8.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)91.1%
12 (either side)82.5%
X2 (draw or away)26.4%
Handicap -1Shakhtar Donetsk win41.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss35.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.5%
1-110.5%
1-010.2%

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka stats

Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka recent form

newest first
Shakhtar Donetsk WWWWDW
Kolos Kovalivka WWLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shakhtar Donetsk and Kolos Kovalivka going into this match

league record before kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk record

  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Kolos Kovalivka record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

6Shakhtar Donetsk wins 1Draws 2Kolos Kovalivka wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-21Shakhtar DonetskKolos KovalivkaUkraine Premier League0-1
2025-12-06Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar DonetskUkraine Premier League0-0
2025-04-19Shakhtar DonetskKolos KovalivkaPremier League2-4
2024-10-18Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar DonetskPremier League0-1
2024-03-08Shakhtar DonetskKolos KovalivkaPremier League3-2
2023-08-27Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar DonetskPremier League0-2
2023-04-28Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar DonetskPremier League1-3
2022-10-19Shakhtar DonetskKolos KovalivkaPremier League3-0
2021-11-07Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar DonetskPremier League1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 75.6%, draw 15.9%, away 8.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.22 6.53 13.50
Bet365 1.22 5.25 9.50
Betano 1.27 5.20 9.25
Betfair 1.20 5.00 10.50
Dafabet 1.25 5.80 10.00
Marathonbet 1.19 5.90 12.75
Pinnacle 1.22 5.85 11.10
William Hill 1.20 5.80 13.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.22 ▼ -0.03
X 5.85 ▲ +0.57
2 12.75 ▲ +1.88

5 snapshots recorded, from .