Ukraine Premier League
·
·Matchday 9
Zorya Luhansk
vs
Chornomorets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chornomorets
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Zorya Luhansk
31%
Draw
33%
Chornomorets
35%
Chance Chornomorets wins
35%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
86%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
42%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
12% of simulated outcomes
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets
| Probability | Zorya Luhansk | Draw | Chornomorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 33.2% | 35.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.4% | 33.2% | 35.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
62%
3+ goals
33%
No goals
14%
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets expected goals
Zorya Luhansk
0.98
Chornomorets
1.06
Total expected goals: 2.04
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets attack and defence ratings
Zorya Luhansk
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Chornomorets
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chornomorets | 35.4% | 2.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zorya Luhansk | 31.4% |
| Draw | 33.2% | |
| Chornomorets | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chornomorets win | 14.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 0-1 | 12.4% |
Zorya Luhansk vs Chornomorets stats
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets recent form
| Zorya Luhansk |
LDDLWL |
| Chornomorets |
DLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zorya Luhansk and Chornomorets season so far
Zorya Luhansk record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chornomorets record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.