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Ukraine Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk

1 – 3 Full time

34′I. Nesterenko
40′Jordan
45′A. Machelyuk
46′P. FallWendell
46′V. VoloshynDiego Andradina
64′D. JelavicI. Gorbach
67′E. BanadaA. Chelyadin
69′I. Gorbach
73′Wendell
74′D. ShastalR. Geresh
78′K. DryshlyukJ. Basic
78′S. BahV. Yurchenko
88′I. NesterenkoA. Glushchenko
88′I. PerdutaG. Eskinja
88′N. VorobchakI. Kvasnytsya

Stadium Livyi Bereh, KyivReferee: Mikola Balakin

Livyi Bereh 39%
Draw 29%
Zorya Luhansk 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 21
4 Shots on target 14
42 Possession % 58
5 Corners 8

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLivyi BerehDrawZorya Luhansk
Model58.0%30.1%11.9%
Market33.0%28.4%38.6%
Final39.2%28.8%31.9%
Edge+6.3%+0.4%-6.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Livyi Bereh

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.55.
  • The market prices Livyi Bereh below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Livyi Bereh ↓ / Zorya Luhansk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 17% 1 19% 12% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 83%
2+ goals 55%
3+ goals 27%
No goals 17%

Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk expected goals

Livyi Bereh 1.27
Zorya Luhansk 0.55

Total expected goals: 1.82

Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk attack and defence ratings

Livyi Bereh

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.51 -49%

Zorya Luhansk

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk: result vs prediction

Livyi Bereh 1 – 3 Zorya Luhansk

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Ukraine Premier League

Before and after this match

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Livyi Bereh 39.2% 2.55 +6.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 71.9% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score No 70.7% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.9% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Livyi Bereh39.2%
Draw28.8%
Zorya Luhansk31.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.528.1%
Under 2.571.9%
Both teams to scoreYes29.3%
No70.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.1%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)60.8%
Handicap -1Livyi Bereh win25.6%
Push (exactly one goal)27.5%
Loss46.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-020.6%
0-016.9%
2-014.7%

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk stats

Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk recent form

newest first
Livyi Bereh WLDDDD
Zorya Luhansk LDDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk going into this match

league record before kick-off

Livyi Bereh record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Zorya Luhansk record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Livyi Bereh wins 0Draws 2Zorya Luhansk wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-25Zorya LuhanskLivyi BerehPremier League2-1
2024-10-27Livyi BerehZorya LuhanskPremier League0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 28.4%, away 38.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.88 3.38 2.46
Bet365 2.80 3.25 2.30
Betano 2.80 3.25 2.37
Betfair 2.70 3.30 2.30
Dafabet 2.85 3.30 2.41
Marathonbet 2.84 3.18 2.39
Pinnacle 2.84 3.22 2.40
SBO 2.60 2.96 2.23
William Hill 2.80 3.10 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▼ -0.24
X 3.25 ▼ -0.27
2 2.39 ▲ +0.09

23 snapshots recorded, from .