Livyi Bereh
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Livyi Bereh
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
| Probability | Livyi Bereh | Draw | Zorya Luhansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 30.1% | 12.0% |
| Market | 35.2% | 30.0% | 34.8% |
| Final | 40.9% | 30.0% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +22.7% | +0.1% | -22.8% |
Why Livyi Bereh
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.48.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Livyi Bereh below the model: +22.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk match preview
Livyi Bereh faces Zorya Luhansk in the Ukraine Premier League, with kickoff set for October 12, 2026. The model suggests a 38% probability of a Livyi Bereh victory, while Zorya Luhansk has a 34% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Livyi Bereh, with a probability of 21%.
In terms of expected goals, Livyi Bereh is projected to score 1.37, while Zorya Luhansk is expected to net only 0.48. Recent form shows Livyi Bereh with a record of W-W-D-D-D-D, contrasting with Zorya Luhansk's L-D-D-L-W-L. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk attack and defence ratings
Livyi Bereh
Zorya Luhansk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livyi Bereh | 40.9% | 2.45 | +22.7% | 2.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livyi Bereh | 40.9% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Zorya Luhansk | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.4% |
| No | 70.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Livyi Bereh win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.4% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 20.5% |
| 0-0 | 16.9% | |
| 2-0 | 14.7% |
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk stats
Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk recent form
| Livyi Bereh |
WWDDDD |
| Zorya Luhansk |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk season so far
Livyi Bereh record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Zorya Luhansk record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 30.0%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.17 | 2.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.04 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .