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Ukraine Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty

1 – 0 Full time

22′Nazariy Rusyn
30′Valentyn Rubchynskyi
48′Joseph Séry
54′Marko Sapuga
59′Joseph SéryRostyslav Lyakh
62′Nazariy Rusyn
63′Vladyslav KabaevNazar Voloshyn
63′Andriy YarmolenkoKeasse Bah
66′Matviy Ponomarenko
67′Roman VantukhIvan Calero
67′Marko SapugaOleksandr Diedov
74′Justin LonwijkMykola Mykhaylenko
76′Keasse Bah
84′Valentyn RubchynskyiOleksandr Pikhalyonok
85′Matviy Ponomarenko
86′Mohamed Aiman MoukhlissEriki Daniel Rodrigues Bento
86′Denys MiroshnichenkoFellipe Vieira
87′Oleksandr Diedov

Valeriy Lobanovsky Dynamo Stadium, KievReferee: Denys Shurman

Dynamo Kyiv 45%
Draw 27%
Karpaty 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

0 Shots on target 0
56 Possession % 44

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDynamo KyivDrawKarpaty
Model25.9%31.5%42.6%
Market50.8%25.6%23.6%
Final44.6%27.1%28.3%
Edge-6.2%+1.5%+4.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dynamo Kyiv ↓ / Karpaty → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 13% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty expected goals

Dynamo Kyiv 0.92
Karpaty 1.25

Total expected goals: 2.16

Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty attack and defence ratings

Dynamo Kyiv

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Karpaty

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty: result vs prediction

Dynamo Kyiv 1 – 0 Karpaty

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Ukraine Premier League

Before and after this match

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dynamo Kyiv 44.6% 2.24 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.3% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score No 56.0% 1.79 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.1% 1.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dynamo Kyiv44.6%
Draw27.1%
Karpaty28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.7%
Under 2.563.3%
Both teams to scoreYes44.0%
No56.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)55.4%
Handicap -1Dynamo Kyiv win9.4%
Push (exactly one goal)16.5%
Loss74.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-113.0%
0-012.8%

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty stats

Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty recent form

newest first
Dynamo Kyiv WWDLWL
Karpaty DWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dynamo Kyiv record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Karpaty record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Dynamo Kyiv wins 3Draws 2Karpaty wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-04Dynamo KyivKarpatyUkraine Premier League0-1
2025-09-27KarpatyDynamo KyivUkraine Premier League3-3
2025-02-23Dynamo KyivKarpatyPremier League2-0
2024-08-17KarpatyDynamo KyivPremier League1-3
2019-10-27Dynamo KyivKarpatyPremier League1-1
2019-07-31KarpatyDynamo KyivPremier League0-2
2018-12-08KarpatyDynamo KyivPremier League0-4
2018-09-02Dynamo KyivKarpatyPremier League0-2
2017-10-29KarpatyDynamo KyivPremier League1-1
2017-07-29Dynamo KyivKarpatyPremier League5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.8%, draw 25.6%, away 23.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.74 3.84 4.66
Bet365 1.73 3.50 4.00
Betano 1.87 3.50 3.70
Betfair 1.75 3.60 3.90
Dafabet 1.88 3.60 3.85
Marathonbet 1.78 3.65 4.00
Pinnacle 1.81 3.63 4.01
SBO 1.84 3.21 3.40
William Hill 1.85 3.50 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.20
X 3.60 ▼ -0.33
2 3.90 ▼ -0.94

21 snapshots recorded, from .