Polessya
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Polessya
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv
| Probability | Polessya | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 30.1% | 26.8% |
| Market | 37.7% | 28.0% | 34.2% |
| Final | 39.1% | 28.5% | 32.4% |
| Edge | +5.4% | +2.1% | -7.4% |
Why Polessya
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 1.01.
- The market prices Polessya below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv match preview
Polessya faces Dynamo Kyiv in the Ukraine Premier League with a probability model indicating a 39% chance of a home win for Polessya, while both a draw and an away victory for Dynamo Kyiv are estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Polessya, with an 11% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.28 for Polessya compared to 1.09 for Dynamo Kyiv, suggesting a closely contested match.
In terms of recent form, Polessya has recorded a mixed performance with a draw, two wins, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Dynamo Kyiv has shown stronger form, winning four of their last six games. Head-to-head statistics reveal that Polessya has yet to secure a win against Dynamo Kyiv, who have won both of their last encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv attack and defence ratings
Polessya
Dynamo Kyiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polessya | 39.1% | 2.56 | +5.4% | 2.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polessya | 39.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polessya win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv stats
Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv recent form
| Polessya |
DWWWWL |
| Dynamo Kyiv |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polessya and Dynamo Kyiv season so far
Polessya record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Dynamo Kyiv record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Polessya | Dynamo Kyiv | Ukraine Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Dynamo Kyiv | Polessya | Ukraine Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-05-09 | Polessya | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Dynamo Kyiv | Polessya | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Dynamo Kyiv | Polessya | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-06 | Polessya | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2020-08-15 | Dynamo Kyiv | Polessya | Friendlies Clubs | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Polessya vs Dynamo Kyiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 27.9%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.44 | 2.76 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .