Karpaty
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Karpaty
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
| Probability | Karpaty | Draw | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.6% | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Market | 58.0% | 24.3% | 17.8% |
| Final | 57.9% | 24.9% | 17.2% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +2.7% | -2.4% |
Why Karpaty
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi match preview
Karpaty enters the match against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi with a 57% probability of winning, while the visitors have a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Karpaty, with an expected goals tally of 1.60 for Karpaty and 0.72 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Recent form shows Karpaty with mixed results, including two wins in their last five matches, while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has struggled, with three losses in their last five outings.
In their last two encounters, Karpaty has yet to secure a win, with one draw and one loss to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 41%, and both teams scoring stands at 42%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack and defence ratings
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karpaty | 57.9% | 1.73 | -0.4% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karpaty | 57.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Karpaty win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 42.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.6% |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stats
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi recent form
| Karpaty |
LDWLDW |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi |
LLLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi season so far
Karpaty record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Karpaty | Ukraine Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Karpaty | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Ukraine Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2023-11-05 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Karpaty | Persha Liga | 3-2 |
| 2023-09-02 | Karpaty | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Persha Liga | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Karpaty | Persha Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-24 | Karpaty | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Persha Liga | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-06 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Karpaty | Druha Liga - Group A | 0-1 |
| 2021-04-25 | Karpaty | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Druha Liga - Group A | 0-3 |
| 2020-10-11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Karpaty | Druha Liga - Group A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.8%, draw 23.8%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.01 | 5.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.88 | 5.35 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .