Chornomorets
vs
Karpaty
Garuda Lions Prediction: Karpaty
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Chornomorets vs Karpaty overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chornomorets vs Karpaty
| Probability | Chornomorets | Draw | Karpaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.8% | 30.1% | 51.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.8% | 30.1% | 51.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Karpaty
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Chornomorets vs Karpaty match preview
Chornomorets faces Karpaty in the upcoming Ukraine Premier League match on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Chornomorets has a 19% chance of winning, while Karpaty holds a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 0-1, with a 15% likelihood. Chornomorets has struggled recently, recording two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five matches. In contrast, Karpaty has managed two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe.
The expected goals for the match indicate Chornomorets at 0.74 and Karpaty at 1.39. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams to score has a probability of 41%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chornomorets and Karpaty expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Chornomorets and Karpaty attack and defence ratings
Chornomorets
Karpaty
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chornomorets vs Karpaty markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karpaty | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chornomorets | 18.8% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Karpaty | 51.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Karpaty win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Chornomorets vs Karpaty stats
Chornomorets and Karpaty recent form
| Chornomorets |
LLDLDW |
| Karpaty |
LDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chornomorets and Karpaty season so far
Chornomorets record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Karpaty record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.