Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk
| Probability | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Zorya Luhansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.9% | 22.2% | 13.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.9% | 22.2% | 13.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Shakhtar Donetsk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk match preview
Shakhtar Donetsk enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six games and drawn once. Their expected goals stand at 2.04, indicating a solid offensive performance, while Zorya Luhansk has a lower expected goals figure of 0.86. The model suggests a 64% probability of a Shakhtar Donetsk victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
Zorya Luhansk has had mixed results recently, with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 51% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Shakhtar Donetsk has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Zorya Luhansk.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk attack and defence ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk
Zorya Luhansk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 40.4% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 63.9% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Zorya Luhansk | 13.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 36.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk stats
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk recent form
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
WWWWDW |
| Zorya Luhansk |
WWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Zorya Luhansk season so far
Shakhtar Donetsk record
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Zorya Luhansk record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Luhansk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Zorya Luhansk | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Zorya Luhansk | Ukraine Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.