Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Obolon'-Brovar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.50.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar
| Probability | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Obolon'-Brovar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.6% | 20.1% | 7.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.6% | 20.1% | 7.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Shakhtar Donetsk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar match preview
Shakhtar Donetsk is favored to win against Obolon'-Brovar with a 76% probability, while the chances of a draw stand at 18% and Obolon'-Brovar at 7%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 15%. Shakhtar Donetsk's expected goals are 2.27, compared to Obolon'-Brovar's 0.55, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Shakhtar Donetsk has won five of their last six matches, while Obolon'-Brovar has struggled, recording one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is projected at 53%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 39%. In their last two encounters, Shakhtar Donetsk has won both matches against Obolon'-Brovar.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar attack and defence ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk
Obolon'-Brovar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 72.6% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.0% |
| No | 65.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 47.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 27.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.4% |
| 1-0 | 15.4% | |
| 3-0 | 11.0% |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar stats
Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar recent form
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
DLWWWW |
| Obolon'-Brovar |
LWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar season so far
Shakhtar Donetsk record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Obolon'-Brovar record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Obolon'-Brovar | Ukraine Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Obolon'-Brovar | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League | 0-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.