Fiorentina
vs
Juventus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Fiorentina vs Juventus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fiorentina vs Juventus
| Probability | Fiorentina | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.0% | 25.9% | 54.1% |
| Market | 24.6% | 25.6% | 49.8% |
| Final | 23.4% | 25.7% | 50.9% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.1% | +1.1% |
Why Juventus
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.9% per unit staked (our 50.9% × 2.16 − 1).
Fiorentina vs Juventus match preview
Fiorentina hosts Juventus in a Serie A clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Fiorentina has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Juventus has secured four wins and two losses in the same timeframe. The expected goals indicate Fiorentina at 1.06 and Juventus at 1.97, suggesting a competitive matchup.
According to our model, the probabilities for this fixture show Juventus favored at 51%, with a 23% chance for Fiorentina and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Juventus, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record in their last six encounters is evenly matched, with each team claiming two wins and two draws.
Fiorentina and Juventus team news
Fiorentina news
- R. Sottil — back injury
Juventus news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fiorentina and Juventus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Fiorentina and Juventus attack and defence ratings
Fiorentina
Juventus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fiorentina vs Juventus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 50.9% | 1.96 | +1.1% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 23.4% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Juventus | 50.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
Fiorentina vs Juventus stats
Fiorentina and Juventus recent form
| Fiorentina |
WDLLLD |
| Juventus |
WWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fiorentina and Juventus season so far
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Juventus record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fiorentina vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Juventus | Fiorentina | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fiorentina | Juventus | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Fiorentina | Juventus | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2024-12-29 | Juventus | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Juventus | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Fiorentina | Juventus | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fiorentina vs Juventus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 26.8%, away 45.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.70 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.50 | 3.57 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.97 | 3.10 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .