Riga
vs
Rīgas FS
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Riga vs Rīgas FS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Riga vs Rīgas FS
| Probability | Riga | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 28.8% | 45.0% |
| Market | 38.7% | 27.0% | 34.2% |
| Final | 35.6% | 27.5% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.4% | +2.7% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rīgas FS below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.5% per unit staked (our 36.9% × 2.75 − 1).
Riga vs Rīgas FS match preview
Riga faces Rīgas FS in a tightly contested Virsliga matchup, with probabilities showing Riga at 36% to win, Rīgas FS at 37%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.06 for Riga and 1.46 for Rīgas FS. Both teams have shown varying recent forms, with Riga recording two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Rīgas FS is on a strong run with five consecutive wins followed by a draw.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, the model suggests a 46% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters favors Riga, who has secured five wins compared to Rīgas FS's two victories and three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Riga and Rīgas FS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Riga and Rīgas FS attack and defence ratings
Riga
Rīgas FS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Riga vs Rīgas FS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 36.9% | 2.71 | +2.7% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 35.6% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Rīgas FS | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
Riga vs Rīgas FS stats
Riga and Rīgas FS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Riga and Rīgas FS season so far
Riga record
- They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 28 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 19 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 12 of 13 penalties (92%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga vs Rīgas FS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Cup | 2-3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Virsliga | 3-3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Riga | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Virsliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Riga | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 3-4 |
| 2025-09-25 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Riga | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Super Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Rīgas FS | Riga | Virsliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Riga vs Rīgas FS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 27.0%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.32 | 2.57 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.32 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.33 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .