Super Nova
vs
Riga
0 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | R. Iida | ||
| 35′ | E. Emsis | ||
| 49′ | M. Tonisevs | ||
| 51′ | Reginaldo Ramires | ||
| 59′ | R. Kirss | ||
| 61′ | A. Cernomordijs | ||
| 62′ | M. DiopA. Taiwo | ||
| 62′ | A. AnkrahCaio Ferreira | ||
| 62′ | Reginaldo RamiresM. Badamosi | ||
| 62′ | R. AouaniIago Siqueira | ||
| 67′ | R. KirssA. Glaudans | ||
| 74′ | BambaM. Tihonovics | ||
| 82′ | M. TonisevsR. Jurkovskis | ||
| 84′ | E. EmsisN. Pathe | ||
| 85′ | M. Badamosi | ||
| 90′ | S. Oulad M'Hand | ||
| 90′ | M. Badamosi |
Super Nova vs Riga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs Riga
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.1% | 29.0% | 38.9% |
| Market | 9.1% | 15.7% | 75.2% |
| Final | 14.9% | 19.0% | 66.1% |
| Edge | +23.0% | +13.3% | -36.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Super Nova and Riga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Super Nova and Riga attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Riga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Super Nova vs Riga: result vs prediction
Super Nova 0 – 1 Riga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs Riga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 66.1% | 1.51 | -36.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 14.9% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Riga | 66.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% | |
| 0-0 | 8.9% |
Super Nova vs Riga stats
Super Nova and Riga recent form
| Super Nova |
WWDDLW |
| Riga |
DDLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and Riga going into this match
Super Nova record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga record
- They have won 20 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova vs Riga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 2-6 |
| 2025-06-22 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-5 |
| 2025-03-06 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-06 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-5 |
| 2023-05-31 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 5-1 |
| 2023-04-20 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs Riga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.1%, draw 15.7%, away 75.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.50 | 5.75 | 1.19 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 6.00 | 1.22 |
| BetVictor | 10.50 | 6.50 | 1.20 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.60 | 1.23 |
| Betfair | 10.50 | 6.50 | 1.15 |
| Marathonbet | 9.90 | 5.75 | 1.18 |
| Pinnacle | 9.46 | 6.06 | 1.23 |
| SBO | 7.91 | 5.51 | 1.20 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .