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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 28

Tukums vs FS Jelgava

1 – 4 Full time

Referee: A. Anufrijevs

Tukums 32%
Draw 27%
FS Jelgava 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tukums vs FS Jelgava overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tukums vs FS Jelgava

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTukumsDrawFS Jelgava
Model27.6%26.5%45.9%
Market33.7%27.0%39.3%
Final32.2%26.9%41.0%
Edge-6.1%-0.5%+6.6%

Confidence: Low

Why FS Jelgava

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.24.
  • The market prices FS Jelgava below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tukums ↓ / FS Jelgava → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 8% 1 12% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Tukums and FS Jelgava expected goals

Tukums 1.24
FS Jelgava 1.65

Total expected goals: 2.90

Tukums and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings

Tukums

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.42 +42%

FS Jelgava

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tukums vs FS Jelgava: result vs prediction

Tukums 1 – 4 FS Jelgava

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Tukums vs FS Jelgava markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FS Jelgava 41.0% 2.44 +6.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.3% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.2% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tukums32.2%
Draw26.9%
FS Jelgava41.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%
Both teams to scoreYes58.6%
No41.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.0%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)67.8%
Handicap -1FS Jelgava win24.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss54.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-29.4%
0-18.0%

Tukums vs FS Jelgava stats

Tukums and FS Jelgava recent form

newest first
Tukums LLWLLL
FS Jelgava WLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tukums and FS Jelgava going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tukums record

  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FS Jelgava record

  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Tukums vs FS Jelgava head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Tukums wins 5Draws 3FS Jelgava wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-21FS JelgavaTukumsVirsliga4-1
2026-05-01TukumsFS JelgavaVirsliga5-0
2026-03-08FS JelgavaTukumsVirsliga2-1
2025-11-09TukumsFS JelgavaVirsliga1-1
2025-08-23FS JelgavaTukumsVirsliga1-1
2025-06-17TukumsFS JelgavaVirsliga1-1
2025-04-23FS JelgavaTukumsVirsliga2-1
2024-09-15TukumsFS JelgavaVirsliga3-3
2024-06-26FS JelgavaTukumsVirsliga0-0
2024-05-07TukumsFS JelgavaVirsliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tukums vs FS Jelgava odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.7%, draw 27.0%, away 39.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.77 3.34 2.27
Bet365 2.80 3.40 2.15
Betano 2.65 3.30 2.32
Betfair 2.75 3.40 2.20
Dafabet 2.65 3.35 2.35
Marathonbet 2.71 3.34 2.25
Superbet 2.65 3.30 2.35
Unibet 2.63 3.20 2.35

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.68 ▲ +0.11
X 3.34 ▲ +0.04
2 2.29 ▼ -0.12

8 snapshots recorded, from .