Ogre United
vs
FS Jelgava
2 – 3 Full time
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs FS Jelgava
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.0% | 25.5% | 45.5% |
| Market | 30.1% | 26.5% | 43.4% |
| Final | 29.8% | 26.3% | 43.9% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -1.1% | +2.1% |
Why FS Jelgava
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.37.
- The market prices FS Jelgava below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and FS Jelgava expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Ogre United and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava: result vs prediction
Ogre United 2 – 3 FS Jelgava
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 43.9% | 2.28 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 29.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| FS Jelgava | 43.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% |
| No | 37.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FS Jelgava win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava stats
Ogre United and FS Jelgava recent form
| Ogre United |
LDLWLW |
| FS Jelgava |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and FS Jelgava going into this match
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FS Jelgava | Ogre United | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Ogre United | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs FS Jelgava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 26.5%, away 43.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.85 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| 1xBet | 3.21 | 3.42 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.50 | 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.97 | 3.83 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 2.84 | 3.07 | 2.11 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Unibet | 3.35 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.10 |