Virsliga
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Super Nova
vs
BFC Daugavpils
0 – 0 Full time
Super Nova
23%
Draw
27%
BFC Daugavpils
50%
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.8% | 30.1% | 47.0% |
| Market | 23.5% | 26.0% | 50.5% |
| Final | 23.3% | 27.0% | 49.6% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +4.2% | -3.5% |
Why BFC Daugavpils
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Super Nova
0.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.37
Total expected goals: 2.25
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
1.09 +9%
BFC Daugavpils
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils: result vs prediction
Super Nova 0 – 0 BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 49.6% | 2.01 | -3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 23.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 49.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils stats
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| Super Nova |
LWLWLL |
| BFC Daugavpils |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils going into this match
Super Nova record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Super Nova wins
4Draws
0BFC Daugavpils wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-27 | BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Super Nova | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Super Nova | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2025-04-15 | BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.5%, draw 26.0%, away 50.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 3.73 | 3.48 | 1.83 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 3.35 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.81 |
| Marathonbet | 3.98 | 3.56 | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | 4.23 | 3.57 | 1.78 |
| SBO | 3.87 | 3.22 | 1.73 |
| Superbet | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.45 | 1.87 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.85 |