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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 28

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils

1 – 0 Full time

Referee: E. Malcevs

Grobiņa 24%
Draw 26%
BFC Daugavpils 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGrobiņaDrawBFC Daugavpils
Model13.0%24.8%62.2%
Market28.0%26.5%45.6%
Final24.2%26.0%49.7%
Edge-15.0%-1.7%+16.7%

Confidence: Low

Why BFC Daugavpils

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.68.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices BFC Daugavpils below the model: +16.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Grobiņa ↓ / BFC Daugavpils → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 14% 13% 8% 1 11% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils expected goals

Grobiņa 0.68
BFC Daugavpils 1.76

Total expected goals: 2.45

Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings

Grobiņa

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.50 +50%

BFC Daugavpils

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils: result vs prediction

Grobiņa 1 – 0 BFC Daugavpils

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 BFC Daugavpils 49.7% 2.01 +16.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.8% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score No 57.9% 1.73 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 37.8% 2.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Grobiņa24.2%
Draw26.0%
BFC Daugavpils49.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%
Both teams to scoreYes42.1%
No57.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.3%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)75.8%
Handicap -1BFC Daugavpils win36.8%
Push (exactly one goal)25.5%
Loss37.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.2%
0-213.4%
1-111.5%

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils stats

Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils recent form

newest first
Grobiņa LLLDLW
BFC Daugavpils DWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Grobiņa and BFC Daugavpils going into this match

league record before kick-off

Grobiņa record

  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.

BFC Daugavpils record

  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Grobiņa wins 1Draws 5BFC Daugavpils wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-20BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaVirsliga1-0
2026-05-02GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga1-1
2026-03-07BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaVirsliga0-1
2025-09-15BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaVirsliga3-2
2025-06-26BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaVirsliga3-2
2025-05-04GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga1-0
2025-03-11GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga3-2
2024-09-14BFC DaugavpilsGrobiņaVirsliga4-0
2024-06-27GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga3-0
2024-05-07GrobiņaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 26.5%, away 45.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.26 3.42 1.99
Bet365 3.40 3.40 1.85
Betano 3.15 3.40 2.00
Betfair 3.25 3.60 1.91
Dafabet 3.20 3.45 2.01
Marathonbet 3.20 3.42 1.97
Superbet 3.20 3.35 2.02
Unibet 3.25 3.40 1.93

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.23 ▼ -0.02
X 3.41 ▼ -0.01
2 1.98 —

6 snapshots recorded, from .