Riga
vs
BFC Daugavpils
1 – 1 Full time
| 46′ | D. AyebadiepreyeA. Traore | ||
| 53′ | A. Traore | ||
| 64′ | A. SalazarR. Jurkovskis | ||
| 64′ | A. AnkrahC. Saco | ||
| 64′ | S. L. Robalo PedroA. Taiwo | ||
| 68′ | N. BarkovskisW. Mukwelle | ||
| 72′ | Iago Siqueira | ||
| 78′ | Iago SiqueiraK. Wassom | ||
| 82′ | Caio FerreiraM. Diop | ||
| 90′ | S. Oulad M'Hand |
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | Riga | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 29.4% | 25.7% |
| Market | 72.5% | 16.5% | 11.0% |
| Final | 65.6% | 19.7% | 14.7% |
| Edge | -27.6% | +12.9% | +14.7% |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.01.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Riga and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Riga and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils: result vs prediction
Riga 1 – 1 BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 65.6% | 1.52 | -27.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 65.6% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 55.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils stats
Riga and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| Riga |
LWDDDW |
| BFC Daugavpils |
LDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Riga and BFC Daugavpils going into this match
Riga record
- They have won 20 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-08 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Riga | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-29 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Riga | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-14 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Riga | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 0-5 |
| 2024-07-28 | Riga | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-24 | BFC Daugavpils | Riga | Virsliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Riga vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.5%, draw 16.5%, away 11.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 5.50 | 8.85 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 4.90 | 8.25 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 5.98 | 7.62 |
| Unibet | 1.35 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .