Garuda Lions
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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 28

Auda vs Super Nova

1 – 1 Full time

Skonto stadions, RigaReferee: V. Mordatenko

Auda 63%
Draw 23%
Super Nova 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Auda vs Super Nova overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Auda vs Super Nova

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAudaDrawSuper Nova
Model59.5%26.8%13.7%
Market64.5%21.1%14.3%
Final63.3%22.5%14.2%
Edge-5.0%+5.6%-0.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Auda

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.65.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Auda ↓ / Super Nova → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 16% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Auda and Super Nova expected goals

Auda 1.61
Super Nova 0.65

Total expected goals: 2.26

Auda and Super Nova attack and defence ratings

Auda

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Super Nova

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Auda vs Super Nova: result vs prediction

Auda 1 – 1 Super Nova

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Auda vs Super Nova markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Auda 63.3% 1.58 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.8% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.6% 2.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Auda63.3%
Draw22.5%
Super Nova14.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%
Both teams to scoreYes39.3%
No60.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.8%
12 (either side)77.5%
X2 (draw or away)36.7%
Handicap -1Auda win33.2%
Push (exactly one goal)26.2%
Loss40.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.7%
2-013.5%
1-112.0%

Auda vs Super Nova stats

Auda and Super Nova recent form

newest first
Auda WWLWWW
Super Nova DLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Auda and Super Nova going into this match

league record before kick-off

Auda record

  • They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Super Nova record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Auda vs Super Nova head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9Auda wins 1Draws 0Super Nova wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-21Super NovaAudaVirsliga0-2
2026-05-01Super NovaAudaVirsliga1-2
2026-03-08AudaSuper NovaVirsliga2-1
2025-09-22AudaSuper NovaVirsliga3-2
2025-08-18AudaSuper NovaCup3-1
2025-07-01Super NovaAudaVirsliga0-1
2025-05-11Super NovaAudaVirsliga1-1
2025-03-16AudaSuper NovaVirsliga1-0
2024-03-02AudaSuper NovaFriendlies Clubs1-0
2023-09-02AudaSuper NovaVirsliga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Auda vs Super Nova odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.5%, draw 21.1%, away 14.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.39 4.30 6.67
Bet365 1.33 4.50 7.00
Betano 1.45 4.00 5.90
Betfair 1.36 4.40 6.50
Dafabet 1.43 4.10 6.20
Marathonbet 1.38 4.30 6.40
Superbet 1.43 4.10 5.80
Unibet 1.41 4.25 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▼ -0.02
X 4.28 ▼ -0.05
2 6.30 ▲ +0.23

4 snapshots recorded, from .