Vard vs Haugesund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vard vs Haugesund
| Probability | Vard | Draw | Haugesund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.3% | 15.2% | 67.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.3% | 15.2% | 67.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Haugesund
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.48 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
97%
3+ goals
89%
No goals
1%
Vard and Haugesund expected goals
Vard
1.71
Haugesund
3.48
Total expected goals: 5.20
Vard and Haugesund attack and defence ratings
Vard
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Haugesund
Attack
1.40 +40%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vard vs Haugesund: result vs prediction
Vard 3 – 4 Haugesund
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vard vs Haugesund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haugesund | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Haugesund win | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vard | 17.3% |
| Draw | 15.2% | |
| Haugesund | 67.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 11.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.1% |
| No | 18.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Haugesund win | 53.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 6.5% |
| 2-3 | 5.9% | |
| 1-2 | 5.8% |